A newer version of this project is available. See below for other available versions.

Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) Volker Daniel, University of Halle; Lucas ter Steege, University of Bonn; Chelsea Goforth, ICPSR; Re Testing, ICPSR

Version: View help for Version V9

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
Data_Codes			08/15/2019 05:16:PM
collegeCompletion.dta	application/x-stata	1.9 MB	09/24/2019 04:56:AM

Project Citation:

Daniel, Volker, ter Steege, Lucas, Goforth, Chelsea, and Testing, Re. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-09-24. https://doi.org/10.17889/E111361V9

Project Description

Summary: A regime shift toward increased inflation expectations is credited with jump-starting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. What role did inflation expectations play in Germany that experienced a similarly successful economic upturn in the 1930s? We study inflation expectations in the German recovery across several methods: we conduct a narrative study of media sources; we estimate inflation expectations from a factor-augmented vector autoregression model, real interest rate forecasts, and quantitative news series. Consistently across these approaches, we do not find a shift to increased expected inflation. This recovery was different, and its causes lie elsewhere.

Funding Sources: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Germany) (1859)

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: TEST; test2

Geographic Coverage: Germany

Time Period(s): 1/1925 – 9/1935

Collection Date(s): 9/13/2019 – 9/13/2019

Universe: Lawyers in the United States in 1984.

Data Type(s): aggregate data

Methodology

Response Rate: 100%

Weights: test weights

Related Publications

Download this project

Published Versions

Export Metadata

Dublin Core

DDI 2.5

Report a Problem

Found a serious problem with the data, such as disclosure risk or copyrighted content? Let us know.

This material is distributed exactly as it arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.