Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) Volker Daniel, University of Halle; Lucas ter Steege, University of Bonn; Chelsea Goforth, ICPSR; Re Testing, ICPSR

Version:  View help for Version V10

Name File Type Size Last Modified
  Data_Codes 08/15/2019 05:16:PM
collegeCompletion.dta application/x-stata 1.9 MB 09/24/2019 04:56:AM

Project Citation: 

Daniel, Volker, ter Steege, Lucas, Goforth, Chelsea, and Testing, Re. Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2019-10-22. https://doi.org/10.17889/E111361V10

Project Description

Summary:  View help for Summary
A regime shift toward increased inflation expectations is credited with jump-starting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. What role did inflation expectations play in Germany that experienced a similarly successful economic upturn in the 1930s? We study inflation expectations in the German recovery across several methods: we conduct a narrative study of media sources; we estimate inflation expectations from a factor-augmented vector autoregression model, real interest rate forecasts, and quantitative news series. Consistently across these approaches, we do not find a shift to increased expected inflation. This recovery was different, and its causes lie elsewhere.
A regime shift toward increased inflation expectations is credited with jump-starting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. What role did inflation expectations play in Germany that experienced a similarly successful economic upturn in the 1930s? We study inflation expectations in the German recovery across several methods: we conduct a narrative study of media sources; we estimate inflation expectations from a factor-augmented vector autoregression model, real interest rate forecasts, and quantitative news series. Consistently across these approaches, we do not find a shift to increased expected inflation. This recovery was different, and its causes lie elsewhere.

Funding Sources:  View help for Funding Sources Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Germany) (1859)

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms TEST; test2
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage Germany
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1/1925 – 9/1935
Collection Date(s):  View help for Collection Date(s) 9/13/2019 – 9/13/2019
Universe:  View help for Universe Lawyers in the United States in 1984.
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) aggregate data

Methodology

Response Rate:  View help for Response Rate 100%
Weights:  View help for Weights test weights

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Published Versions

V10 [2019-10-22]

V9 [2019-09-24]

V8 [2019-09-13]

V7 [2019-09-04]

V6 [2019-09-04]

V5 [2019-09-04]

V4 [2019-09-04]

V3 [2019-09-03]

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